ד"ר מירון גרוס
פרופ' מ. קרמר
המפגש הבא והאחרון בסמסטר זה ייערך , כזכור, ביום ב' 10-1-2011 בשעה 10:00 ויוקדש להרצאתם של ד"ר מירון גרוס (המכללה האקדמית של ת"א ואוניברסיטת תל-אביב) ופרופ' מ. קרמר (ר. מכון הריאות בביה"ח בילינסון, המרכז הרפואי ע"ש רבין)
הנושא:
To Be or Not to Be (Operated) ?
A quantitative decision model for the dilemma of an IPF patient when facing a transplantation surgery (with some personal aspects)
Abstract: The present paper analysis the decision making process of a lung –disease –patient facing the dilemma whether to accept or to turn down a lung- donation and a transplantation surgery, when offered.
Although previous studies have shown various data for the survival of lung-transplant patients, right after surgery and throughout the following years, none has touched the subject of the patient's decision process prior to the surgery.
The authors focus on the point of view of the transplant- candidate, modeled by his revealed risk- preference, using existing data of survival probability and a Bayesian approach. The resulting decision model may help surgeons assess the benefit, to the patient, of the surgery compared to a possible negative answer by the candidate. The model suggested is examined through the personal case of the first author.